Shot volume and chance quality: understanding the difference

What Shot Counting Can Tell You

A high shot count can show how often a team is attempting to score, but it does not tell you how dangerous each shot was. A shot from distance through many opponents and a free shot in front of goal are both counted as one attempt each. You shouldn't immediately label the team with more attempts as the one with better chances.

When reviewing a shot, besides the distance from goal, pay attention to the angle it was taken from, whether the body had time to adjust, and how much defensive pressure there was. Ball speed and the height at which it was received can also change the practical difficulty of finishing. Not every shot near goal is an easy attempt.

Shots on Target and Danger

A shot on target can arrive weakly at the goalkeeper, while a shot off target might come from a very good chance. Therefore, looking at shots on target and assessing the chance before the shot are different questions. One shows more about the finishing, while the other shows more about the situation that was created.

In the shot chart, also check the inclusion of penalties and free kicks. A team may struggle to create chances for much of a match, yet one set-piece opportunity can substantially change its overall figures. It's not about discarding those chances, but about distinguishing them from chances created from open play during the match.

How to Write an Easy-to-Read Review

Look at shot locations by splitting the first half and the second half. If you can say whether they got closer to goal after substitutions, or whether crosses from the left turned into chances, that's more useful than reporting total shots. Choose a clear example, but don't take one example as proof of the whole match.

If xG is available, use it alongside the other evidence to examine chance patterns. If not, you can simply describe shot locations and situations seen from video. Rather than inventing a figure that is unavailable, writing according to evidence, such as the team relied more on long-range shots, is better football content.

Putting it into practice

You can also note attacks that didn't result in a shot. A cross in front of goal that the receiver didn't reach, an extra touch that closed down space, or passing to someone else when there was a chance to shoot may not appear in the shot list. Pairing data-based review with video can reveal chances that didn't become a recorded shot.

Also consider the defenders and goalkeeper when assessing a shot. Whether the defense forced the opponent to shoot only from distance or directed them to their weaker foot can be evidence of good defending. Even if they conceded shots, they might have kept the danger low, so you shouldn't blame the defense just because the shot count is high.

Even a simple table recording location, creation method, and pressure at the time of shooting for each shot is useful. Without a complex model, you can explain how the ball reached the goal area. If you write based on those notes that good chances were few, you must show readers what observations led to that conclusion.